The Coming Election

The coming election

I can see that you are thinking of the current elections, whilst I don’t wish to influence the readers one way or another. I shall give you some of my thoughts.

Democracy is a delicate thing, it is not perfect, but it is much better then most alternatives. There have been so called democracies were people have voted for a party only to find that the party, once elected will not tolerate any opposition. This as been the system in a lot of African countries, hence the term “One man, One vote, Once,” some of these elected democratic governments have been in power for decades.

Nigeria as just had elections, and has changed parties. Hopefully there shall be smooth transition of administration.

And

If they can just remove most of the corruption in the civil service, Nigeria could be an example to others.

To come back to our own elections, our MP’s are not squeaky clean, but on the whole are a pretty honest bunch and at least except the rules of Parliamentary Democracy. Also we have, though some people disagree, an honest and efficient civil service and local government. Who apply rules fairly to all and keep out of party politics, leaving politics for the politicians.

Whilst some people moan about the major parties, “Labour, or Conservative; what’s the difference? Different sides of the same coin.” “Or at the end of the day, they both aim for the centre ground and have similar policies.” Then again MP’s are British, and as such have British values of compromise and don’t like extremes.

But what is the alternative to Parliamentary Democracy? A Dictatorship?  Absolute Monarchy? A one Party State? Or do we go for anarchy as we are seeing taking place in the Middle East?

Before I take my leave, one common theme on both main parties, [one or the other will be in office in May] is “we must achieve a balanced budget before the end of the next Parliament”. Or to state the obvious, we must only spend what we raise in taxation and that there shall be no current deficit.

Three things to ponder, 1] The Government has no money of its own, only tax payers money [Your money] 2] A current deficit means, “this years income is less then what we spend”. 3] The national debt, “simply the running total of current deficits”.

Fact 1; Until we achieve a balanced budget, we cannot start to reduce the national debt.

Fact 2; The cost of servicing [% payments] is about what the state spends on National Defence.

Fact 3; % rates are at an historic low, historically % rates were about 3-5%. Not 0.5%.

Fact 4; What will be the effect on UK Plc [and you] if % rates have to be increased.

Fact 5; The borrower is the slave of the lender.

How do you achieve a balanced budget? Only one answer a] cut spending to below what UK Plc’s income is. Or b] Increase taxation to cover UK Plc’s spending.

The question to ask yourself ; do I want the government to spend more, or less of my money? Or do I want the government to take more, or less of my money?

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Comments

On the spending side of things, I don't think its that linear.

In the western world, national programs of vast expenditure at times of debt have vastly increased the living standards.

This happened in Germany in the 30's, in America and even in the UK. The NHS was created at a time of great financial hardship.

Not all debt is equal in a world especially where currency is based on confidence rather than some physical output.

Over the past 5 years the national debt of the UK has doubled and something that has made this worse not better is the cuts that the conservatives have made.

5 years ago the British economy was forecasted to have a faster recovery and the taxes aid after a faster recovery would have more than covered for the shortfall, but instead we went the other way of cutting more, creating more hardship and this has lead to more national debt and not less.

You can see the weasle words used by David Cameron to defend his economic record. When he talks about the deficit... he talks about it "relative to GDP" and not in absolute terms. Ofcourse this hides the fact that an improvement in GDP Could reduce the deficit "relative to GDP" even while it iself is increased in real terms.

Going back to the issue of currency and wealth, our currency and our wealth is no longer linked to any natural resource, but to confidence. the pound sterling is worth what people feel (confidently) that is is worth. If their confidence goes down, the value goes down. If their confidence goes up, the value goes up.

It is a confidence trick and has the side effect that spending more can make it more valuable, so spending wisely, especially on projects and ideas that are considered valuable will help us not hinder us.

"For too long, we have been a passively tolerant society, saying to our citizens 'as long as you obey the law, we will leave you alone'" - David Cameron, UK Prime Minister. 13 May 2015.

Another way to look at currency is relative to gold.

Over the past decade the value of gold has tripled.

Or looked at another way, the value of our money is now 1/3 of what it was a decade ago, but we just don't realise this because we base the value of most things on the value of our money and most currencies have also undergone similar devaluations.

If only the pound sterling had felt this devaluation, as a lot of commerce is international, we would have felt it a lot more.

"For too long, we have been a passively tolerant society, saying to our citizens 'as long as you obey the law, we will leave you alone'" - David Cameron, UK Prime Minister. 13 May 2015.

PS it is ok to trry to influence people with your ideas. No one knows it all and as long as there are facts presented to support an idea, its fair game.

I myself have never voted in a general election and I know that even in these elections which are fairly tight, my vote won't count so I might not vote.

Democracy is rarely about ideas but about constituenties. In Nigeria, the new guy won and the old guy lost not because one guy had better ideas, but because the victor's constituencies turned up to vote when they didnt last time, and the loser's supports had a low turn out this time compared to last time.

This still allows for a peaceful exchange of power which is very valuable and aids an immense amount to keep stability and financial wellbeing.

"For too long, we have been a passively tolerant society, saying to our citizens 'as long as you obey the law, we will leave you alone'" - David Cameron, UK Prime Minister. 13 May 2015.

Going back to the issue of currency and wealth, our currency and our wealth is no longer linked to any natural resource, but to confidence. The pound sterling is worth what people feel (confidently) that is worth. If their confidence goes down, the value goes down. If their confidence goes up, the value goes up.

There lies the problem, over the past 5 years, the £ as been fairly stable in relation to the US $ +/- 10%. With the Euro it as gained 20%. The Euro as fallen 20% against the US$. One could say a] The UK economy tends to mimic the US economy, b] The Euro is struggling because of all the turmoil in the southern EU Countries, or c] the world has confidence in the way the Conservatives are dealing with the UK Plc’s economy.

The question remains, what will happen to the £ if we have a minority Labour Government? The other question is we have a balance of payments deficit [we import more then we export] but if the £ collapses? The cost of imports will rise, and with it the cost of living, plus a % rate hike?

Then again looking at the polls, Labour seems set for a massive defeat in Scotland and with it a rise in SNP’s in Westminster. This will only aid the Conservatives as the they have no MP’s in Scotland.

5 years ago the British economy was forecasted to have a faster recovery and the taxes aid after a faster recovery would have more than covered for the shortfall, but instead we went the other way of cutting more, creating more hardship and this has lead to more national debt and not less.

Yes there was no recovery; then again there was very little recovery in the US, or the EU. Even China is reporting a downturn. As for cuts, Yes the Public sector pay was frozen, and most councils had their grants frozen, or only increased with inflation. On the other hand, Personal tax Allowance went from £6475 2010/11 to its current level of £10600 [over 60%] Labour had either frozen this allowance or raised it from £5554 2007/08 to £6475 2010/11 [+16%]

This reinforces the argument that Labour is no longer the party for the working man, but a party for the people on minimum wage [in receipt of maximum tax credits and other allowances] or the long-term unemployed  [again in receipt of maximum tax credits and other allowances] If you are in work and earning the minimum wage + 50%. You are eligible for neither tax credits nor any other allowances. The LibDems even pushed through the withdrawing of family allowance for those people whose income tax rates was 40%. This was petty minded of them as family allowance was a universal allowance paid to all since 1948.

I firmly believe that when Election Day comes around, LibDem voters will be split on who to vote for. The Conservative voters who gave LibDem a chance will return to the Conservatives. The Low paid [min wage + 50%] who are fed up of people on benefits etc having the same income as them may vote for the Conservatives. For all the UKIP hype people prefer the devil they know, rather then risk a punt on UKIP.

Again these are only my opinions, whichever party gains power, a] they have all said they will balance the books by 2020 and b] It is already on the statute books to freeze Tax Credits and other Allowances for next 2 years [except for State Pensions, which will rise with inflation] but that could well be changed after the election whoever gains power.

Democracy is rarely about ideas but about constituencies. In Nigeria, the new guy won and the old guy lost not because one guy had better ideas, but because the victor's constituencies turned up to vote when they didn’t last time, and the loser's supports had a low turn out this time compared to last time.

As you say, it all depends on the turn out

 

It is a confidence trick and has the side effect that spending more can make it more valuable, so spending wisely, especially on projects and ideas that are considered valuable will help us not hinder us

The Conservatives state that they will not increase borrowing? Labour as said [along with the LibDems] They will increase borrowing only for Investments? There lies the question, what is an Investment? What is Capitol Expenditure? What is simply borrowing to pay for current expenditure?

Is it an Investment to pay the salaries for more teachers? Is it Capitol Expenditure to pay for a new school building, but not to refurbish an old school building? Is it an Investment, or Capitol Expenditure to build a new motorway, but is it current expenditure to resurface a motorway? Is the replacement of Trident, Capitol or current expenditure? Lots of loopholes. I much prefer the simple statement, “No Increase in Government Borrowing in this Parliament. This includes HS2 London to Birmingham at a cost of some£40bn.

Another way to look at currency is relative to gold.

Over the past decade the value of gold has tripled.

Or looked at another way, the value of our money is now 1/3 of what it was a decade ago, but we just don't realise this because we base the value of most things on the value of our money and most currencies have also undergone similar devaluations.

We are unlikely to go back to the Gold Standard. Plus there are two forms of Gold, Physical what is in your possession, and Paper Gold, a bit of paper that says we have your gold in our vault somewhere? Or maybe just a promise that we have your physical gold, but don’t all ask for it at once, as we have sold this gold many times over. Plus it does not make any income, how do you store it safely. Plus when the time comes to sell it there is only a limited choice of where to sell it.

Yes it is worth more then it was a decade ago, but look at the price over the past 5 years. It is hardly risk free. There is also an interesting site about the history of gold that you might find interesting.

 

Tower Hamlets mayor Lutfur Rahman guilty of corrupt and illegal practices over election

Anjem Choudary claims all Muslim MPs and voters are 'apostates' sinning against Islam

Then again a more reasoned augument for participating

I do not really understand the meaning of shirk and its affect on being called a shirk on a Muslim? What i do believe though is. God gave you a brain and the biggest sin that i can see is not using it.

 

As i see it wrote:
What i do believe though is. God gave you a brain and the biggest sin that i can see is not using it.

Biggrin

"For too long, we have been a passively tolerant society, saying to our citizens 'as long as you obey the law, we will leave you alone'" - David Cameron, UK Prime Minister. 13 May 2015.