Probable Fall of Aleppo to the Assad regime

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Recently, the Assad forces have managed to gain an upper hand in their fight to gain control of Aleppo which has now almost been encircled. This assault has been supported by russian air strikes that have often indicriminately targeted civilians and while purportedly targetted ISIS, they have notably stuck everyone but ISIS.

Encirclement will allow the Assad regime to carry out their time tested practice of starving the place into submission or death. A detailed map of the city and who controls what is available at

The Russian involvement in Syria since september has become a major game changer - the regime, which was on the brink of collapse and losing ground almost daily is currently resurgent.

The unfortunate side efffect of this is that the civilians are even more so in the firing line as Russia does not seem to care about civilian casualties (I am unsure if the Western coalition is - I have not seen many reports of the results of the air strikes).

Up to 70,000 civillians are currently reported to ahve fleed Aleppo and have headed towards Turkey.

In all of the battlegrounds, one striking thing to notice is that any battlegrounds between Assad's forces and ISIS are calm.

ISIS normally kills and decapitates its enemies - unless they are Assad's forces, in which case they are held captive and traded as part of prisoner exchanges.

Recent peace talks collapsed due to the assault on Aleppo and it seems that the US has recently indicated to Assad that they are happy for him to remain in power, which is a reward for the chaos that the Assad regime has put his own people through. It remains to be seen if the people on the ground will willingly accept this or will be forced (through cutting off supplies and arms etc) to accept this, or even if they will continue fighting,

The only solution I can see is one that is unlikely to happen - for Turkey to annex northern Syria and Northern Iraq. Nowt wrong with redrawing the map a little - except that it could lead to World War 3.

Comments

"For too long, we have been a passively tolerant society, saying to our citizens 'as long as you obey the law, we will leave you alone'" - David Cameron, UK Prime Minister. 13 May 2015.

The link leads to an article by the Independant 13 Feb 2016

False flag? To give Saudi [hardly the most democatic and free state] plus Turkey to combine forces to enter Syria. Why? Is the long term plan to for a new Ottoman Empire?

What will NATO's response be if Syria, with Russia's assistance give Saudi and Turkey a bloody nose. Syria is not Yeman, and Russia is not Iran. Plus under UN rules any country as the right to self defence.

IMHO, just a scare story for domestic consumption, Turkey has been caught red handed buying oil from DAESH/ISIS, Saudi's version of Islam is not that far removed from DAESH/ISIS. Plus both might be involved in training, funding and supplying [Remember the Law of unintended consequences]

Largest “moderate” group in Syria calls for “an Islamic state” in country, Sharia law imposed in Northern Aleppo

A decent article, is this Saudi trying to replace ? with ? who knows,

Syria: The race for Raqqa

 

 

Turkey claim they hold evidence of the YPG sending weapons into the south east of Turkey for use by the PKK, which since last year has renewed its armed insurgency. The YPG do not see themselves as independent from the PKK (unlike the Peshmerga, which have good relations with Turkey and are not allied with the PKK and the YPG).

The YPG in the past has used the support of the FSA to fight of ISIS when it was assaulting Kobane, but it has actually (previously secretly) been allied with and part of the Assad Regime - when Assad could not hold on to the locations surrounding the Kurdish areas, he spun them off into their own forces.

When Kobane was being attacked by ISIS, the YPG refused the help of Turkey and also Peshmerga, but in the end reluctantly allowed a small number of Peshmerga in. They only wanted the help of the PKK, which has been at war with Turkey for over 30 years.

In relation to the current shelling by Turkey, the are was controlled by the FSA and allies, which assisted the YPG against ISIS when Kobane was attacked. But since a few days ago, the YPG has joined forces with the Assad army to attack with the area with the backing of the Russian air force.

For Turkey, it is important to have a corridor to supply the city of Alleppo which is in the process of being encircled (and then starved) by the Assad forces. The YPG are helping Assad in cutting off the supply routes and Turkey has acted to try to prevent this - it s unclear if their actions will have any impact.

As for buying oil, everyone is. Including Assad.

One thing to remember on the scales in Syria though is that Assad has killed something like 95 times the number of people in Syria compared to ISIS, so while ISIS may be the bogeyman for the west, Assad is much worse for the people living there.

"For too long, we have been a passively tolerant society, saying to our citizens 'as long as you obey the law, we will leave you alone'" - David Cameron, UK Prime Minister. 13 May 2015.

Too many lies or disinformation. call it what you will. But like it or not Assad government is the legitimate government of Syria and as the support of 70% of Syrians

Prior to the civil war Syria was a well developed country with a good infrastructure. All religions was tolerated and people were free to live their life relatively freely.

How many people would still be alive today if there had not been an armed uprising against Assad?

How many people are being killed in Libya since Ghadaffi was murdered?

The so called moderates against Assad want to bring in Sharia Law and an Islamic State similar to Saudi Wahabism. This is being imposed on the Libyan people. [Valentines Day has been banned as un Islamic] plus it is illegal to criticise the current regime in Libya, or even to comment that life for the ordinary Libyan was better under Ghadaffi.

   This link makes interesting reading has Libya is still in turmoil.

Will this be the future for the Syrians if Assad is deposed, or the Northern part of Syria and Iraq is taken over by Turkey?

There are too many outside forces involved [including the west] and it is time for all to think hard and long before we reach the point of real escalation?

Turkey/Saudi sends in ground forces, Syrian forces plus Russia/Iran destroy these forces within Syria. Will Turkey ask for NATO's assistance? Will Turkey get it after all Turkey as invaded Syria, not the other way round.

Plus the other question how many of the latest wave of refugees fleeing to Europe are ex ISIS fighters. What do you expect the European Governments to do if serious confrontation breaks out within European borders? Just stand back and do nothing. ISIS is on record saying in 2014 that there will be over a million refugees fleeing to Europe and at least 5% will be ISIS members. 2016 is going to be a difficult year for EU Politicians. not to mention population. 

 

As i see it wrote:
Too many lies or disinformation. call it what you will. But like it or not Assad government is the legitimate government of Syria and as the support of 70% of Syrians

Prior to the civil war Syria was a well developed country with a good infrastructure. All religions was tolerated and people were free to live their life relatively freely.

How many people would still be alive today if there had not been an armed uprising against Assad?

While I agree with the middle paragraph, I do not agree with the 1st and 3rd. At the start, Assad did inded have that popularity and had he done things differently it may exist. but now, I doubt many other than the alawis want him in power - before Russia stepped in, even many of them didnt!

While there were secret hands at play, with the initial non armed protests, Assad decided to be brutal, which after a few months created an armed uprising. Without his regime's actions, the people would not have risen up against him.

Quote:
How many people are being killed in Libya since Ghadaffi was murdered?

The so called moderates against Assad want to bring in Sharia Law and an Islamic State similar to Saudi Wahabism.

Syria does not have a large "wahhabi" population - it was majority sufi sunni, so I would expect their will to not create a country like saudi arabia.

Quote:
This is being imposed on the Libyan people. [Valentines Day has been banned as un Islamic] plus it is illegal to criticise the current regime in Libya, or even to comment that life for the ordinary Libyan was better under Ghadaffi.

   This link makes interesting reading has Libya is still in turmoil.

Libya is different IMO and there have been actions taken there by foreign actors to prevent a stable leadership, because it was not the one the outsiders wanted. Its unfortunate that the game being played with the Libyans is not broadcast more loudly or exposed better.

But all of that does not make Assad an OK guy. He had a choice to not kill his own people. He chose otherwise.

Quote:
Will this be the future for the Syrians if Assad is deposed, or the Northern part of Syria and Iraq is taken over by Turkey?

There are too many outside forces involved [including the west] and it is time for all to think hard and long before we reach the point of real escalation?

Turkey/Saudi sends in ground forces, Syrian forces plus Russia/Iran destroy these forces within Syria. Will Turkey ask for NATO's assistance? Will Turkey get it after all Turkey as invaded Syria, not the other way round.

Plus the other question how many of the latest wave of refugees fleeing to Europe are ex ISIS fighters. What do you expect the European Governments to do if serious confrontation breaks out within European borders? Just stand back and do nothing. ISIS is on record saying in 2014 that there will be over a million refugees fleeing to Europe and at least 5% will be ISIS members. 2016 is going to be a difficult year for EU Politicians. not to mention population. 

ISIS is the bogeyman. Its numbers were around 15,000 to 20,000 in its heyday. It always chose easy targets and after the fall of Mosul its strength lay in the modern weaponry at its disposal compared with soviet era weaponry smuggled to other groups (which it attacked from the rear).

No matter how bad ISIS is, Assad is worse. The following graph () shows the numbers of civillian casualties caused by the bigger factions:

Syria Casualties from March 2011 - 31 January 2016
Syria Casualties from March 2011 - January 2016

From there its clear the ISIS is the bogeyman, and in the coalition to fight it, many parties are pushing to ally with real evil.

"For too long, we have been a passively tolerant society, saying to our citizens 'as long as you obey the law, we will leave you alone'" - David Cameron, UK Prime Minister. 13 May 2015.

As i see it wrote: Too many lies or disinformation. call it what you will. But like it or not Assad government is the legitimate government of Syria and as the support of 70% of Syrians

Prior to the civil war Syria was a well developed country with a good infrastructure. All religions was tolerated and people were free to live their life relatively freely.

How many people would still be alive today if there had not been an armed uprising against Assad?

In the last election, of people polled [admit not the whole country] Assad received most of the votes. Plus prior to the armed insurrection Assad polled 70%+ of the vote.

Most of the disgruntled people appear to have been displaced refugees from countries that surrounded Syria [mainly Iraq and Palestinians] Plus most of ISIS fighters [and others] appear to originate from outside of Syria.

Syria does not have a large "wahhabi" population - it was majority sufi sunni, so I would expect their will to not create a country like saudi arabia.

While I agree with the middle paragraph, I do not agree with the 1st and 3rd. At the start, Assad did inded have that popularity and had he done things differently it may exist. but now, I doubt many other than the alawis want him in power - before Russia stepped in, even many of them didnt!

Most of Syrian Internal refugees are Alawites and Christians who have fled the conflict and now reside on the coast in Assad controled areas. Most are hoping once the conflict is over to return to their homes. Unless of course Assad is defeated then who knows?

While there were secret hands at play, with the initial non armed protests, Assad decided to be brutal, which after a few months created an armed uprising. Without his regime's actions, the people would not have risen up against him.

Yes there are secret hands at play. Prior to the current uprising plans had been made for pileline to export Natural Gas and Oil from Iran and Iraq via Syria. Assads refusal to play ball with Saudi and Qatar in a similar scheme.

As the Alawites are spin off from the Shiate sect of Islam, plus Iran is mainly Shiate. Also Iran and Saudi are not on the best of terms. Who funded and armed uprising? Who would stand to lose revenue to an Iran/Iraq Oil and Gas export pipe?

Some articles might be of interest.

The US-Russia gas pipeline war in Syria could destabilise Putin

Migrant Crisis & Syria War Fueled By Competing Gas Pipelines

Don’t let anyone fool you: Sectarian strife in Syria has been engineered to provide cover for a war for access to oil and gas, and the power and money that come along with it.

How the War in Syria is About Oil, not ISIS

Too many lies or disinformation. call it what you will.

No matter how bad ISIS is, Assad is worse. The following graph (taken from twitter

() shows the numbers of civillian casualties caused by the bigger factions

The link to the twitter I disagree with and reading the comments section a lot of people appear to agree with me.

Libya is different IMO and there have been actions taken there by foreign actors to prevent a stable leadership, because it was not the one the outsiders wanted. Its unfortunate that the game being played with the Libyans is not broadcast more loudly or exposed better.

Gaddafi stated before his demise that foreign activist were behind the revolt [Al-Qaeda and others] that the majority of Libyans were happy with him. He also stated that Libya would split up into differing tribal areas that would end up fighting amongst themselves, only combining, on a temporary basis, if it suited.

No one [apart from Russia] appeared to listen. NATO mounted its bombing of Libya [unlawful IMHO and against protests from many people in the west] In support of so called moderate opposition? The rest is history, yes the west could have helped more after Gaddafi’s demise, but with the mass of warring factions who do you negotiate with? As they now say [quietly] in Tripoli. “we have exchanged  one Dictator for many, and in some ways things were better under Gaddafi”

As for what is currently happening in Libya not being broadcasted more loudly I totally agree. But the reason for this is twofold 1] short term media interest and 2] it might show western political leadership in a bad light. Worst of all people might start to ask awkward questions.

It was only by luck and a narrow vote that NATO did not repeat its actions in Syria. Yes Assad would have been toppled, but like Libya, Syria would have split up into many factions fighting for power but with no respite for ordinary people.

On coming back to Syria there are a series of articles [2] on the history of Syria. Prior to Assad’s father coming to power up to the present day that you might find of interest.

Understanding the Cauldron that Brewed ISIS: Part I - Historical Context  plus links to part two

Dr. M. Zuhdi Jasser

 

 

You said; But all of that does not make Assad an OK guy. He had a choice to not kill his own people. He chose otherwise. 

Agreed having run what was a stable thriving country, with a decent standard of living for most does not make Assad an OK guy.

But did he have a choice to kill his own people?

He was faced with an armed insurrection? He was faced with people willing to gain control of, and hold areas of Syria. The stated aims of these people was to bring in a system that the majority of people did not want [IMHO]

If you back someone, or a government, or an organisation into a corner. Place them in a position where [as they see it] their way of life [and themselves] will be destroyed. You can expect a backlash.

Frightened people, politicians and leaders do not always make rational decisions

 

Recep Erdogan's Turkey risks becoming a "failed" state; Ankara's irresponsible Mideast policy combined with the oppression of the Kurdish minority may result in the country's social turmoil and disintegration, Czech-based analyst Martin Berger warns.

'Too Many Enemies': Erdogan Believes Turkey 'Has the Right' to Invade Syria

So if he invades Syria [along with Saudi] will he get support from NATO?

Will Turkey comply with the Iraq's governments request to leave Mosul? Or will Turkey hold on to Mosul, like Turkey as held on to Northern Cyprus, ignoring UN resolutions to leave?

Will Turkey be heading for a Tukey spring and will Saudi have a belated Arab spring also?

 

If we compare Turkey to its pre-AKP days, it is still much much better. More law and order, more wealth, more justice.

Ofcourse, since the recent turmoil, things are more chaotic in Turkey, especially since the peace process with the PKK faltered.

In relation to Mosul, that is under the control of ISIS. Turkey has a small training facility nearby which was at the time created with the blessing of the government in Baghdad. However, since then Baghdad and Tehran have viewed with alarm the close ties between Turkey and the KRG, which has worried them, especially as the locals of Mosul seem to prefer anything compared to being overrun by Shia militias, which was the case before ISIS walked in.

In relation to Cyprus, that is a totally different situation - Turkey was one of the officially designated protectors of Cyprus, however when Greek cypriots preferred a coup and secession to greece, at the Behest of the UK, Turkey stepped in.

Since then there have been attempts to settle the problems, even as recently as 2004 when Turkish Cyprus accepted the Annan plan, but Greek Cyprus rejected it. The EU naturally rewarded the Greek Cypriots by granting them a place inside the EU - which was against EU rules.

If the EU had not been so hypocritical in its dealings with Cyprus, chances are that it would have been reunited by now.

"For too long, we have been a passively tolerant society, saying to our citizens 'as long as you obey the law, we will leave you alone'" - David Cameron, UK Prime Minister. 13 May 2015.