Mubarak Falls

Well, not yet, but it is only a matter of time.

EDIT - You read it here first! - END EDIT

The army has been called into quell the protests and he was supposed to make a speech on Egyptian TV - a speech that has been postponed.

It seems that Mubarak's primary backer has pulled out - Brian Whittaker from The Guardian describes his view of the US position, which if true more or less means they no longer think Mubarak will be in power for long:

It looks to me as if Clinton is angling for a negotiated departure by Mubarak, accompanied by an increase in political freedom. I think the US is aiming to structure the solution in a way that would protect its key interests: the peace treaty with Israel, the Suez canal, and co-operation against terrorism.

The other main backer of the regime would be the army, but there have been reports where atleast some from the army have failed or refused to crackdown on protesters, in places members of the armed forces shook hands with protesters, in other parts, they have been cheered on the same protesters.

So it seems they are trying to make the best of it for themselves, angling for a new regime that is close enough to the old regime where their interests lie. Now its good to mention freedoms etc, but giving people freedoms will mean that the aspirations of the people will clash with the aspirations of the US and Israel, so what they really want is a new regime which has had a cosmetic makeover and is identical to the old regime.

But that is all after the fact. First, the wobble has to be turned into a fall and that is where the Egyptians need to do something that they have not managed to do in a long long time.

EDIT - new posts on twitter suggest that protesters have managed storm the Egyptian state TV station. If that has happened, it really could be game over - he controls the voice of the nation controls the nation. Or something like that. Let's see if they can get onto air.

EDIT 2 - New reports the army has dispersed the crowds that had stormed the TV station and the station had managed to stay on air through out giving the official government view (including what I read earlier, its suggestion that there were no crowds gathered outside...)

Comments

TPOS
Member since:
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They tried banning internet and mobile usage but clearly that didn't stop them!

"How many people find fault in what they're reading and the fault is in their own understanding" Al Mutanabbi

You
Member since:
24 June 2005
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58 min 53 sec

You've watched Braveheart right?

"you can take our internet connections and out mobile phone networks, but you can't take away our FREEDOM!"

(no, I haven't watched Braveheart...)

Its time to be angry.

You
Member since:
24 June 2005
Last activity:
58 min 53 sec

From Breaking News on Twitter:

Egyptian army ordered onto the streets, but they do NOT appear to be taking any action against protesters -NBC's Richard Engel

Its time to be angry.

TPOS
Member since:
8 November 2008
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1 week 6 days

Why do people not learn from history?

"How many people find fault in what they're reading and the fault is in their own understanding" Al Mutanabbi

You
Member since:
24 June 2005
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58 min 53 sec

Ocean wrote:
Breaking news: unconfirmed news of the Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak fleeing the country.

Interesting. Link to an article suggesting the same: http://www.afrol.com/articles/37164

Chief of staff of Egyptian Army was in Washington and is now on his way back. I wonder if he has been given his orders... or will he seal the fate of the current regime?

Its time to be angry.

You
Member since:
24 June 2005
Last activity:
58 min 53 sec

In the live speech of Mubarak now, he has just sacked his government, saying there will be a new government tomorrow. (WOOT! WOOT!)

It will just be a shuffling of the chairs, a case of "meet the new government, its the same as the old one" but he says he will stay. I doubt that will be possible. He is a dead man walking.

Its time to be angry.

Looking To See
Member since:
24 December 2008
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4 months 6 days

i've just been reminded by someone of the whole "raising against muslim leaders" and well.. its a no no.

Hadith - Sahih Muslim 4569, Narrated Umm Salamah, r.a.

The Messenger of Allah (peace be upon him) said: In the near future there will be Amirs (rulers) and you will like their good deeds and dislike their bad deeds. One who sees through their bad deeds (and tries to prevent their repetition by his hand or through his speech), is absolved from blame, but one who hates their bad deeds (in the heart of his heart, being unable to prevent their recurrence by his hand or his tongue), is (also) safe (so far as God"s wrath is concerned). But one who approves of their bad deeds and imitates them is spiritually ruined. People asked (the Prophet): Shouldn't we fight against them? He replied: No, as long as they say their prayers.

so..i know i dont live there and dont know the real situation (who does?) or the standard of living etc.. but... no.

Is it true? Is it kind? Is it necessary?

You
Member since:
24 June 2005
Last activity:
58 min 53 sec

I was watching AL Jazeera a little earlier and they had an interview with someone from the Muslim Brotherhood.

The guy got asked quite a simple question "in all these protests, where are the Muslim Brotherhood?" and he kind of floundered, as while the Muslim Brotherhood are normally seen as the opposition to the regime, they have/had been able to have almost no impact on Mubarak's presidency and the current popular uprising is not linked to them at all - at the start they even went out of their way to tell people NOT to protest.

Just adding this if people from HT affiliated groups try to take ... credit ... from the uprising from normal Egyptians unaffiliated with the Muslim Brotherhood - they managed to do something the Brotherhood has failed to do.

Its time to be angry.

You
Member since:
24 June 2005
Last activity:
58 min 53 sec

@Lilly - Mubarak got in after the assassination of Sadat, so that goes to show how abrupt change in power is not always good.

Omar Suleman, the intelligence chief, has been sworn in as the vice president. So now if Mubarak steps down, there will be a replacement ready.

However, being the intelligence chief, even though people respect him, surely he was the force between Mubarak's words before?

I don't see how he could be seen as a change in any way - according to Michael Moore, this is the same guy who ran the CIA's kidnapping/rendition program.

From an expert on BBC News: "There is a lot of nerviousness in Washington - these people on the streets are not our friends."

Its time to be angry.

TPOS
Member since:
8 November 2008
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So can that hadith be applied here or not?
So its ok for people to be treated badly under a dictatorship etc? :S

Does anyone know anything else about this hadith, can you put it into context/explain it because that sounds wrong if it can be applied to every kind of ruler :S :/

(Of course not saying *it* is wrong or anything - just want to understand it)

"How many people find fault in what they're reading and the fault is in their own understanding" Al Mutanabbi

You
Member since:
24 June 2005
Last activity:
58 min 53 sec

It doesn't say it is ok.

It recognises leaders as human - with good sides and bad.

and it says it is not a religious prerogative to overthrow a leader if he has failings.

A process has started in Egypt. There will be consequences if it is completed or not completed - the better ones a possibility if it is completed (but not the only probably consequence), so now that it has started, it should be completed.

The consequence of not continuing now would most likely be brutal repression with the aim of not allowing things to develop to this stage in the future.

It's a pandoras box, with many negative consequences possible no matter happens, but in the box with all them, slighylt hidden are more positive outcomes that people are hoping for.

Its time to be angry.

TPOS
Member since:
8 November 2008
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1 week 6 days

ok, thanks, that makes a lot more sense.

"How many people find fault in what they're reading and the fault is in their own understanding" Al Mutanabbi

You
Member since:
24 June 2005
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58 min 53 sec

Mubarak announces he will not stand again for re-election in the september elections.

Will that be enough to appease the protesters?

(and was it me but did the US in some ways announce that before he did?)

Its time to be angry.

Looking To See
Member since:
24 December 2008
Last activity:
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but we shouldnt hope for a domino effect in other islamic countries.

but in the news they mentionned something about *maybe* (HOPEFULLY) Palestine rising! yeah..something about Israel being on their guards...

Is it true? Is it kind? Is it necessary?

TPOS
Member since:
8 November 2008
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1 week 6 days

Lilly wrote:
but we shouldnt hope for a domino effect in other islamic countries.

Why not?!

"How many people find fault in what they're reading and the fault is in their own understanding" Al Mutanabbi

Looking To See
Member since:
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Muslims are not suppose to rise against their leaders until they drop prayer = not muslims anymore.

Is it true? Is it kind? Is it necessary?

TPOS
Member since:
8 November 2008
Last activity:
1 week 6 days

You wrote:
It doesn't say it is ok.

It recognises leaders as human - with good sides and bad.

and it says it is not a religious prerogative to overthrow a leader if he has failings.

"How many people find fault in what they're reading and the fault is in their own understanding" Al Mutanabbi

You
Member since:
24 June 2005
Last activity:
58 min 53 sec

Lilly wrote:
Muslims are not suppose to rise against their leaders until they drop prayer = not muslims anymore.

yup.

But once something has started, going back will also have consequences.

If the regime survives now that people have stood up, the backlash could be brutal and organised.

Then again the replacement could also turn out to be bad, but there is a chance for hope there.

Its time to be angry.

Looking To See
Member since:
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You wrote:

Then again the replacement could also turn out to be bad, but there is a chance for hope there.

thats where we pray REALLY REALLY REALLY hard.

Is it true? Is it kind? Is it necessary?

Looking To See
Member since:
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ThE pOwEr Of SiLeNcE wrote:
You wrote:
It doesn't say it is ok.

It recognises leaders as human - with good sides and bad.

and it says it is not a religious perogative to overthrow a leader if he has failings.

Is it true? Is it kind? Is it necessary?

s.b.f
Member since:
1 October 2008
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3 days 46 min

 

Looking To See
Member since:
24 December 2008
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wouah...

Is it true? Is it kind? Is it necessary?

TPOS
Member since:
8 November 2008
Last activity:
1 week 6 days

Lilly wrote:
ThE pOwEr Of SiLeNcE wrote:
You wrote:
It doesn't say it is ok.

It recognises leaders as human - with good sides and bad.

and it says it is not a religious perogative to overthrow a leader if he has failings.


doesn't that mean you don't have to do it?

But yeh I get it - it's not allowed. (that's all I get though. So I won't be spreading the fact around)

"How many people find fault in what they're reading and the fault is in their own understanding" Al Mutanabbi

Looking To See
Member since:
24 December 2008
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what else dont you understand?

Is it true? Is it kind? Is it necessary?

TPOS
Member since:
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Why bad people are allowed to get away with bad things just cuz they're praying Muslims.

I am not saying it is wrong, or the hadith is wrong or anything of the like. I simply want to understand the wisdom behind it.

"How many people find fault in what they're reading and the fault is in their own understanding" Al Mutanabbi

Looking To See
Member since:
24 December 2008
Last activity:
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i think its a case of, if people start rising against their leaders it would create chaos etc...

whereas there is a way out for muslims even under a bad leader; patience and its reward.

there must be more, should research it? let us know if you find anything?

Is it true? Is it kind? Is it necessary?

You
Member since:
24 June 2005
Last activity:
58 min 53 sec

An alternative is fixed terms where a leader is "signed up" to lead for a specific period of time and after that time the people can cast their vote to decide if they want to keep that leader or choose a different one.

(giving a leader preconditions is allowed - hadhrat abu bakr (ra) had the precondition set to hadhrat Umr (ra) that he continue the conquest of Mesopotamia/Iraq.)

Its time to be angry.

You
Member since:
24 June 2005
Last activity:
58 min 53 sec

A 15% payrise for civil servants has been announced in Egypt. It will kick in in April

I was reading elsewhere that there was a sort of revolution in Argentina and Bolivia soon after they followed advice from the IMF on fiscal policy, and that in 2005, Egypt also restructured some things at the request of the IMF. Linked?

It seems that IMF stands for Incompetent Monetary Fund.

Its time to be angry.

Looking To See
Member since:
24 December 2008
Last activity:
4 months 6 days

You wrote:
An alternative is fixed terms where a leader is "signed up" to lead for a specific period of time and after that time the people can cast their vote to decide if they want to keep that leader or choose a different one.

(giving a leader preconditions is allowed - hadhrat abu bakr (ra) had the precondition set to hadhrat Umr (ra) that he continue the conquest of Mesopotamia/Iraq.)

sounds reasonable, chosen by the people?

well..we cant really do it the way the Caliphs did: power for life and passing it on to someone trustworthy. all the religious people who would be honest and godfearing nowadays wouldnt stand up to take up this job.

ahh man..it was soo awesome back in the days..with the different governors that the people could go to for anything they needed. and how caliph Umar (ra) once told one of his governors to give his money away, just so that he'll stay humble and not think he had special privilege.
during that time, they use to see this as a burden, (being in authority) and a heavy responsibility, not something where you get lots of cash fast and you're above the rest of the people...

Is it true? Is it kind? Is it necessary?

You
Member since:
24 June 2005
Last activity:
58 min 53 sec

An interesting leaked cable from 2008.

Guess who the preferred replacement for Mubarak is? Its the same person who has been made vice president.

Its time to be angry.

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